Elections
AI-backed candidates go 18 for 20 in 2026 primaries — but lose the race that mattered most
With the June 23 primaries decided, AI super PAC spending has backed winning candidates in 18 of 20 resolved races. The two losses: Jesse Jackson Jr. (IL-02), who lost despite $1.43M in Think Big support, and Alex Bores (NY-12), the cycle's most-watched and most-expensive AI race. Among the winners: Celeste Maloy (UT-03) with $920K in Defending Our Values support, Ben McAdams (UT-01) with $1.06M from Think Big, and incumbents Ritchie Torres (NY-15), Yvette Clarke (NY-09), and Joseph Morelle (NY-25). Several races remain: Julia Letlow (LA-Senate, June 27), Manny Rutinel (CO-08, June 30), Aaron Flint (MT-01, August 4), and Amanda McKinney (WA-04, August 4).
Why this mattersThe 18-2 record looks impressive but requires honest context. Most winners were incumbents or heavily favored establishment candidates in safe seats — the AI money backed likely winners, not created upsets. The one race where the outcome was genuinely contested and the spending genuinely decisive — NY-12 — went against the AI industry's target. Jackson Jr.'s loss in IL-02 is the strongest counter-example: $1.43M of pro-innovation money failed outright.
June 24, 2026
Elections
AI's most expensive primary is decided — Bores loses despite more money on his side
Micah Lasher won the NY-12 Democratic primary with 39% of the vote. Alex Bores, who authored the RAISE Act and became the top target of AI industry opposition spending, finished second at 35%. The race was the most expensive AI PAC contest of the 2026 cycle — $27.41M in AI-linked independent expenditures flowed into this single primary. Think Big (Leading the Future network) spent $8.15M opposing Bores. On the other side, Jobs and Democracy ($13.16M), You Can Push Back ($3.34M), Dream NYC ($2.48M), and Guardrails Alliance ($285K) spent a combined $19.26M supporting him — a more than 2-to-1 advantage. The result defies a simple narrative: Bores had more AI money behind him than against him and still lost. The largest single PAC in the race was not an AI group — Michael Bloomberg's Stand for New York spent close to $10M backing Lasher, who also had endorsements from Rep. Nadler and Gov. Hochul and strong support among older voters. Whether AI industry opposition spending contributed to Bores' loss, or whether Bloomberg's money, the endorsements, and a crowded field mattered more, will be debated. Bores' response: 'Though we've come up short tonight, the example set here was not the one the AI oligarchs intended.'
Why this mattersThe AI industry intended this race as a warning to candidates who cross it. But Bores came within 4 points despite being massively outspent by Bloomberg on the other side, and the pro-safety PACs actually outspent the pro-innovation opposition. The lesson may be less about AI money's power and more about the limits of outside spending against a well-funded, well-endorsed establishment candidate.
June 23, 2026
ElectionsDisclosure
AI PAC spending climbs to $53.75M — pro-safety opens $9M lead
FEC-verified independent expenditures on 2026 candidates now total $53.75M (Transformer-aligned, June 24): $31.37M pro-safety vs $22.38M pro-innovation. Pro-safety has opened a roughly $9M lead, driven almost entirely by the NY-12 race supporting Alex Bores from Jobs and Democracy ($13.16M), You Can Push Back ($3.34M), Dream NYC ($2.48M), and Guardrails Alliance ($285K).
Why this mattersTwo months ago the conventional read was that industry money would swamp pro-regulation candidates. By dollar volume, the opposite happened — pro-safety PACs now outspend pro-innovation across the cycle.
Elections
Scorecard update: Hern wins Oklahoma, 11 AI-backed candidates have now advanced
Of decided races where AI super PAC money was spent, 11 backed candidates have advanced, 1 lost (Jesse Jackson Jr., IL-02), and 1 is pending verification (Bob Brooks, PA-07). Advanced: Panetta (CA-19), McGowan (IA-04), Bean (IL-08), Foushee (NC-04), Buckhout (NC-01), Menendez (NJ-08), Kingston (GA-01), Graham (SC-Sen), Ricketts (NE-Sen), Poindexter (OH-07), and Hern (OK-Sen) — who won the June 16 GOP primary, Trump-endorsed, and advances to November in a safe-Republican seat. Defending Our Values PAC's $808K pro-safety bet backed a winner.
Why this mattersSeveral of these winners (Graham, Hern, Ricketts) were heavily favored incumbents or Trump-endorsed frontrunners in safe seats, where AI PAC money was a small fraction of total spending and not decisive to the outcome. The clearest test of whether AI money actually moves a race remains NY-12 (Bores), decided June 23.
June 17, 2026
Elections
Support for Bores overtakes opposition in most expensive AI race
Pro-safety PACs have now outspent the opposition in NY-12 — $6.81M supporting Alex Bores vs $6.31M opposing, $13.12M total, the costliest AI PAC race in the country. As Transformer's Veronica Irwin noted, many assumed Bores would be 'stamped out' by industry money; that's not what happened.
Why this mattersThe marquee test of whether AI industry money can defeat a pro-regulation candidate is breaking against the industry.
Elections
First results are in: AI-backed candidates split
The earliest 2026 primaries have produced the first results in races where AI money was spent. Among pro-innovation (Leading the Future network) picks: Melissa Bean (IL-08) advanced, but Jesse Jackson Jr. (IL-02) lost despite $1.43M in Think Big support. Jimmy Panetta (CA-19) and Chris McGowan (IA-04) advanced. Among pro-safety picks: Valerie Foushee (NC-04) won a razor-thin primary with $1.61M in support. The marquee race — Bores in NY-12 — votes June 23.
Why this mattersThe first scorecard on whether AI PAC money actually moves primaries is mixed — at least one heavily backed candidate (Jackson Jr.) lost outright.
June 10, 2026
ElectionsDisclosure
Demand Progress launches AI Money Watch to track Leading the Future
The progressive nonprofit launched a monitoring effort focused on Leading the Future's spending, joining a growing set of AI-money trackers.
Why this mattersMore watchdogs are tracking AI political spending as the primaries approach.
June 10, 2026
Elections
Bores sends cease-and-desist over Palantir attack ad; Think Big doesn't back down
Bores' campaign alleged a Think Big attack ad made false claims about his Palantir work and ICE. Think Big spent another $326K airing it.
Why this mattersAI PAC attack ads often focus on issues far from AI policy to move voters.
June 2026
Elections
Leading the Future moves into Senate races: Graham and Hern
Leading the Future's American Mission PAC is reported to be spending roughly $400K supporting Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) ahead of his June 9 primary, and has committed around $850K backing Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) in his Senate bid. Both ads emphasize alignment with President Trump rather than AI policy. The moves extend the AI industry's spending from House primaries into Senate races.
Why this mattersAI PAC money is expanding into Senate races. As with the House spending, the ads focus on Trump loyalty and other issues — not AI — even though the PAC's goal is shaping federal AI regulation.
June 7, 2026
ElectionsDisclosure
AI PAC spending on candidates reaches $31.97M — pro-innovation now leads pro-safety by 30%
Confirmed FEC independent expenditures on 2026 candidates total $31.97M (Transformer-aligned): $18.09M from pro-innovation PACs (Think Big $11.42M, American Mission $6.68M — both Leading the Future network) and $13.88M from pro-safety PACs (Jobs and Democracy $6.26M, Defending Our Values $4.63M, You Can Push Back $1.90M, Dream NYC $1.08M). Pro-innovation is outspending pro-safety by roughly $4.2M, about 30%. The marquee NY-12 race (Alex Bores) now totals $12.77M in combined spending — $6.31M opposing, $6.46M supporting.
Why this mattersThe earlier framing of an even split between the two sides was wrong: anti-regulation spending is ahead by about 30%. Separately, $185M+ has been raised across AI industry PACs and nonprofits — but only $31.97M of that has been spent directly on candidates so far.
Elections
AI and crypto money dominate NY-12 debate
At the June 5 debate Bores was the prime target; opponents argued the industry money supporting him would leave him beholden to AI and crypto.
Why this mattersThe support money is now an attack line against Bores, not just an asset.
June 5, 2026
ElectionsSafety
McMorrow expands AI platform to include frontier-model safety review
Michigan Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow added new AI safety positions to her campaign platform, including requiring a human in the loop for healthcare, hiring, and military decisions; strengthening AI chip export controls; and creating a process for third-party or government review of frontier models before deployment. The additions build on earlier proposals covering AI job displacement, data center regulation, kids' online safety, and surveillance pricing. McMorrow currently leads polling in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary.
Why this mattersMcMorrow is one of the few candidates running on AI safety as a core campaign issue rather than treating it as a niche concern — and she's doing it without AI industry PAC money. Her platform is a test of whether AI policy can be a winning electoral message on its own.
June 2, 2026
RegulationSafety
Trump signs AI executive order on national security and cyber capabilities
President Trump signed 'Promoting Advanced Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Security,' establishing a voluntary program for AI companies to share frontier models with the government before public release so federal agencies can assess their cyber capabilities. The order pivoted away from earlier proposals to mandate government approval of new models. It directs the homeland security secretary to expand federal cybersecurity programs using AI defensive tools. Trump had delayed signing an earlier version two weeks prior over concerns it could slow US competition with China.
Why this mattersThis is a separate track from the administration's push to preempt state AI laws. It focuses on national security and frontier model cyber capabilities — and notably relies on voluntary industry participation rather than mandatory review.
June 2, 2026
Elections
Leading the Future pledges $2M to Senate races in Louisiana, Montana, and Oklahoma
The group is backing Julia Letlow (LA), Kurt Alme (MT), and Kevin Hern (OK), with $1.5M to deploy immediately plus an additional $750K in California and Washington House primaries. As of June 4, none of the pledged Senate spending has appeared in FEC filings yet.
Why this mattersAI PAC money is moving into Senate races for the first time. Whether the pledged spending materializes in FEC filings over the next two weeks is the thing to watch.
June 2, 2026